Embracing Trends: How to Rethink Programming
sponsored by Choctaw Casino Resort/Choctaw Grand Theater
Panelists:
David Farrar, Santander Arena & Performing Arts Center
Gary Guidry, Black Promoters Collective/G-Squared Events
Chris Semrau, ASM OKC/Paycom Center
Kelly Stelbasky, AEG Presents
Nidhish Varughese, Live Nation
Moderated by:
Joe Giordano, Oak View Group
“Programming is about finding content that is unique to an audience,” said Gary Guidry, kicking off the conversation. “Could be a niche audience or a general market audience. Could be a package bill. The consumer is looking for an edge. They want more bang for their buck in that ticket price. Sometimes, they’ll choose that package over an A-list artist. If we’re lucky, they’ll choose both.” For key performance indicators in the urban space, Guidry suggests looking for artists who have hard ticket sales history. “But also understanding the audience and what they want to see. It’s being able to create a package that taps into a certain playlist or takes them back to a moment in time. That understanding can come from digital analytics, the metrics and all the things we do to understand who’s getting streamed and what artist is hot where. But it can also come from just going to beauty shop or barber shop and saying, ‘Hey man, what do you think about this?’ Pick up the phone. Talk to people on the street level. That’s just as important. Talk to the street.”
For Chris Semrau, rethinking programming starts with “know who you are and know who you’re not.” He explained, “You have to really know your market. It’s also knowing your numbers. What’s that per-head worth? From a western event like PBR to comedy to Latin – what is that worth in your venue? Prioritize your resources accordingly. Many times, people want a homerun swing every time. But there’s a lot of singles and doubles and they stack up. And those can really diversify your calendar.” He’s consistently looking 12-18 months out and being intentional about diversifying. He runs a city-owned venue and is expected to offer something for everyone. He added that knowing your market includes watching acts grow in smaller venues. They share this data with decision-makers. “We want them to be well versed with all the metrics, all the history.”
“We are creative with how we get promoters to come to our buildings,” said David Farrar. “We’re a smaller market with two smaller buildings. We get some Live Nation and AEG stuff, but we’re out there scrapping and clawing to get shows from all the independents. You get enough of those, and they add up. But it takes a lot of work from marketing and sales.” Giordano noted that almost half of the content coming through Santander is Latin. Farrar elaborated, “In the arena last year, I think we did 20 Latin shows. But there was a year of talking about it beforehand. Reading City is 68% Latino and it’s heavy Puerto Rican. We knew the market was there. We knew radio support was there. We had a street team. It just hadn’t been done yet. It took a lot of begging and pleading. When we got the first show with Marc Anthony, it had to be successful. And it was. Marc Anthony came back and was even more successful. It snowballed from there. Latin is the one genre that rings for us. It’s really a credit to our market and our team.” He echoed Semrau regarding the importance of knowing your market. “I could make a great deal with Guidry for one of his shows, but it wouldn’t work in Reading. Even in the Latin space, knowing what demographic is in the market is key. It took a while before we were able to do Mexican shows because we had to make sure that market was there.”
Trying Something New
Varughese added, “Music really is global and has no borders. Live Nation is really investing in South Asian artists to help grow the genre in North America, as well as around the world. Diljit Dosanjh is a great example. Live Nation produced his 2024 Dil-Luminati tour, the largest South Asian tour in North America. It was wildly successful – over 215,000 tickets sold across 13 shows with a $27M gross. We even did multiple stadiums including Toronto and Vancouver. We’re realizing that the audience is there for the genre. It’s just a matter of tapping into it. We use a lot of Spotify and YouTube data, which is telling us where the audience is. The artists share that data with us as well.”
As an expert in K-pop, Kelly Stelbasky believes rethinking programming means balancing risk and opportunity. “It’s easy to get caught up in the success of some markets, but the trick and the art is to understand how to appropriately enter the market and find those opportunities. Our K-pop team is very bullish about building new markets in North America and around the world. We’ve taken some risks over the last couple years.” In addition to looking at Spotify reports, Stelbasky looks at historical sales and zip code reports to see where fans are coming from. “In K-pop specifically, they’re used to doing two shows at Prudential Center, two shows at State Farm Arena – that sort of thing. Recently, we looked to see where these fans are coming from. Do we really need to park in one city? Do we need to make these poor fans spend all this travel time and money to see their favorite act?”
With K-pop, Stelbasky noted, “It’s absolutely not a Korean audience. It’s not even an Asian audience. It’s a mix of everything, and that’s the fun part. A representation of the world is at these shows. If you want to promote a K-pop show, to go to a K-pop show in a different market. Get there at 10AM and watch what happens. In order to be an awesome building partner, you have to know what you’re dealing with and to help make the experience great for fans and also to satisfy the artist’s expectations of taking care of the fans.” On their K-pop shows, Santander grossed $500k with their 6,000 cap. Farrar shared, “The fans show up early and the merch per-caps are insane. But F&B sales aren’t great. As Kelly said, it’s definitely not just a Korean audience.”
Guidry spoke about understanding the reality of a particular genre. “The right artists, the right agents and the right venues have to come together to make the risk tolerable for the promoter. It’s not always easy. But when you can get a great venue deal and an artist manager who understands that the guarantee needs to be adjusted because this is an emerging space and an agent who understands who the right promoter is to break the space for that particular act – when those things come together, it’s a formula for success.” For Guidry, success is about understanding what people want to see and which artists have the right chemistry together. “You have to understand the culture to be able to do that. Analytics and digital percentages have a certain place, but it’s really about understanding what people want to see.” When Guidry did the first “The Millennium Tour” featuring the reunion of B2K in 2019, the 2000s was a lost genre. “The radio people were telling me they didn’t play the music, but I knew that the space was there for that niche audience,” he said. The tour won Top R&B Tour and Top Rap Tour categories at the 2022 Billboard Music Awards.
Marketing Something New
After a tour is over, Stelbasky’s team looks at all the data. They spend a lot of time talking about marketing. “K-pop was spoiled for a while because they would put up arena shows, the shows would sell out, and they would forget about them until they played. The market is very crowded now. In the last 12-18 months, we’ve had to work really hard to sell through some shows. Artist management is now more willing to try marketing. Before, it was very restricted.”
Varughese noted, “Traditionally, people thought you had to go to the mom-and-pop shops and to the community. Now, the audience is consuming everything through social media. The audience for South Asian music is also listening to Drake and Ariana Grande, so we’re marketing in ways that get directly to them. We’re still in the early phase of this genre, so there’s a hunger for content. We’re lucky in that regard. As we’re putting content up, people are paying attention because they haven’t had the opportunity to experience these shows on a larger scale.”
Giordano asked the building panelists to discuss how they work with promoters, agents and artists to support their efforts and about possible shifts in the ways they implement these initiatives. Farrar’s venues often co-promote so they’re partners. His marketing team spends a lot time talking to tour marketing teams and digging into trades with radio, OOH and other outlets. “We try to think of ourselves as promoters first and building people second,” he said.
At Paycom Center, Semrau’s booking and marketing teams meet every week to discuss incremental promotions they can do locally to layer on top of what tours have in place. They’ve found success joining and working with the Hispanic Chamber of Commerce. “It’s also beneficial to talk to past ticket purchasers who had good experiences in our venue,” he added.
Sustainable Success
Giordano segued to a question submitted from a conference attendee: “From a promoter perspective, can you speak to what contributes to sustainable success for an artist and, from a building perspective, how can we contribute to that?” Varughese replied, “It’s the artist putting in the time and the work, continuously being open to trying new markets. And also going back to do markets again as they continue to release new music. For Diljit, some markets (like Dallas) sold 4,000-5,000 tickets the first time around. Diljit wanted to return to those markets and continue to build. He sold out at 14,000 tickets the next time in Dallas.”
Stelbasky agreed and added, “Artists must invest in the markets they’re playing. It’s not just spending time or doing market-specific posts. It means both of these things and a whole lot more.” She has an upcoming show in Bangkok with a K-pop group. One of the members is from Bangkok, so that member is going in a few days early to do press and promo in advance of the show. “It’s going to cost money to do that, but she’s doing it because that market is important to her and to the group.”
“I also think it’s understanding who the artist is,” added Guidry. “Some artists are very covetous of the creative space. The promoter doesn’t touch it. Then, there are artists who are more receptive to having a promoter that is more of a producing partner.”
Giordano asked, “Venues, are you providing honest feedback to the promoter and the agent? Promoters, do you value input from the building perspective?” Semrau answered, “Yes, but I think it goes back to the sustainable artist question. I think it’s working with your promoter partners to find the right room in the market, even if it’s not your room. You want to create conditions for long term growth. Hopefully, they’ll come back, even if they have to sit out your venue this time.” He feels open with most of his promoter partners and agents to share feedback based on guest surveys, but also on observations during the event.
Farrar concurred, “We try to provide a lot of feedback, especially on the sustainable artist piece. We’re working with the promoter and the artist to make sure they understand – on the Latin side specifically – why they’re in Reading when they announce a tour. We’re 4,000-6,000 seats smaller than anywhere else they’re playing. We stress that the market has had great success, the grosses are big, the expenses are lower, and fans in Central Pennsylvania now know they have to go to Reading to see Latin shows.”
Giordano added, “It’s a testament to how you can sell yourself through truth and honesty. At OVG, we have a dual mandate to do what’s right by our buildings and what’s right by the artists.”
“Feedback absolutely matters,” said Guidry. “Artists can feel a genuine spirit of partnership. When it’s genuine, they’re a lot more receptive to your feedback. In the end, they really appreciate it because they want to do the best job.” In the spirit of providing feedback, Guidry added, “Artists remember special experiences in your venues. You want to have an emotional connection with the artist, to show you care. When an artist sees special things that were created just for them, there’s a partnership.”
Stelbasky agreed, “I appreciate feedback, absolutely. I like to think I’m speaking with our building partners all the time. But if I’m not – call me. If you see something going wrong, pick up the phone and tell my team. We’re all in it together.” Regarding the custom experiences that buildings craft for artists, she added, “It matters to the artists. If they have a fun experience – or a venue was super thoughtful in their gifting – and just made it the best day ever, they’re going to want to come back.”
Crystal Ball Predictions for 2025
“Q1 and Q2 2025 aren’t looking good right now,” Giordano shared. “We came out of two post-pandemic years where things were hot. Everything was touring, and we got used to that. Our budgets got used to that.” He asked his panelists, “What are you doing to keep your 2025 calendars full?”
Semrau: “2025 is vulnerable in the arena space right now. We’re being intentional and looking at all of those other areas – athletic opportunities including college sporting events and E-sports. It’s also working with your independent promoters. Waiting for the phone to ring and large promoter partners to bring you content — I don’t think that will ever round out everything you need. You’ve got to partner with them but also be aggressive on your own and really have a strategy in place.” Giordano added that when he was at BOK Center in Tulsa, they created 5-6 nontraditional events. He noted, “If you can do sponsorship right, there’s money in it. If you offset your expenses and self-produce, then we’re not talking about risk. We’re talking about the ability to kind of control what you’re doing.”
Stelbasky: “A lot of things will get sorted out in the next several weeks and we’ll have a better picture of what’s happening in 2025.” She mentioned tours that have moved into 2025 and a lot of the K-pop content that is sitting in the fourth quarter of 2025. “It seems like there’s a new benchmark of P1 prices every other month or so. But the flip side is that people are having to make choices.”
Guidry: “I think 2025 is going to be a period where we’re all being a little careful.” He mentioned high production costs, high artist fees, some resistance in ticket pricing, the economic and political landscape, and that consumers are becoming more selective.
Varughese: “A lot of shows coming in Q3 and Q4 of 2025 will have 3-month on sale periods.”